A majority of voters did not vote for Donald Trump. How does that relate to Yugioh? It doesn’t. I’m sorry avid readers, this article is not about Yugioh, not even Magic. Today we have the presidential election results between Clinton and Trump. It doesn’t matter now who you voted for or who you wanted to win because Trump won. Maybe something will happen like Trump gets assassinated but that would just leave another Republican in his place. Seriously, what presidential candidate would pick someone from the opposite party to be their VP? Also, wishing people dead isn’t nice, even if they look like one of the new Pokemon. Let’s look at the data, the broken U.S. Voting system and how The Donald
stole Christmas won the election.
If you are taking the time to read this, thank you. I mainly write about Yugioh so the rest of my content probably isn’t for you if you’re here for politics. If you’re here for data analysis, then maybe you’ll like my other things. If you’re here for Yugioh, please read on because Yugioh is a strategic game with lots of data points and understanding data is critical.
How is the presidential election won?
I know there are lots of people outside the United States that don’t understand how the electoral college and whatnot works as well as voting denizens, so I’m just going to explain it for clarity’s sake.
There are 50 states plus one district with electoral college votes and each state gets a number of electoral college votes. I’m from New York, which has 29 electoral votes. Whichever candidate gets 270 or more out of a possible 538 electoral votes wins the presidency, which is 50.19%. Personally I think that number should be higher but I also think that anyone should be allowed to vote provided they pass some sort of competency test. That’s a slippery slope I’m not willing to discuss now, though.
The two main parties are Democrat and Republican. For the unaware, Democrats are the donkey, blue, left, liberal and generally more for improving life for the less advantaged, funded in part from taxing the rich. Republicans are the elephant, red, right, conservative and generally more for lowering taxes for everyone, so they can keep more of their money. That’s at least the overall gist of things. Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine made up the Democratic ticket, while Donald Trump and Mike Pence made up the Republican ticket.
California, Texas, Florida/New York and Illinois/Pennsylvania are the states with the most electoral votes because they have the most people. That’s fair, right? Let’s begin in New York by taking a look at the graphic below. Most of the state is red but the most populous areas, Erie County (Buffalo), Monroe County (Rochester), Clinton County (Plattsburgh), Onondaga County (Syracuse), Schenectady County, Albany County, Columbia County and the poor New York City Boroughs as well as the counties just north of NYC, that are full of people too poor to live in NYC (perhaps an overall mischaracterization), but those counties voted Democrat, which according to PBS is 58.74% of New York’s population, giving ALL 29 of New York’s electoral votes to Clinton. I know, 41% of the popular vote didn’t go to Clinton but she gets all of the electoral votes. Most of New York is bumfuck nowhere without any people. That’s how it happens.
FIRST PAST THE POST IN FLORIDA
California had 60.96% of their population voting for Clinton, so all 55 of California’s electoral votes go to Clinton. Texas was 52.62% in favor of Trump, so Trump gets all 38 electoral votes from Texas. We already looked at New York, Clinton won with 58.74%. Florida had 49.12% voting for Trump, so Trump gets all 29 votes from Florida. Wait, what? Are you serious? Trump didn’t even get a majority of the votes. How is that fair? That’s how the voting system is set up. It’s first past the post, which means a majority of people can vote for ‘not Trump’ and Trump can still win the state’s electoral votes. Whoever has the highest percentage of votes, regardless of majority, wins. If the votes were 30% Trump, 27.5% Clinton, 25% Johnson, 17.5% Stein, Trump would have still won all 29 of Florida’s electoral votes. In actuality, 50.88% of the people voted for ‘not Trump’, which is more than half. If we say 50.19% is needed to win the votes in that state, neither president gets the votes. That’s how the electoral votes work, so why shouldn’t the popular votes that decide the distribution of the electoral votes work in the same way?
ALTERNATIVE VOTE / RUNOFF VOTING
CGP Grey made a series of videos on voting but this one in particular shows how the alternative vote works. If you don’t have five minutes to watch this five-minute video, allow me to explain. A candidate needs more than 50% to win all of that states’ electoral votes. California, Texas and New York have that, so no problem. Florida is the state with the most electoral votes in which no candidate received a majority of the popular vote.
So, under the alternative vote if I really wanted Jill Stein but absolutely did not want Trump, my ballot may look like this.
1: Jill Stein
2: Gary Johnson
3: Hillary Clinton
Under the alternative vote, my vote goes to Jill Stein. Since La Fuente has the least votes, we remove votes cast for him, and his voters second selections get redistributed into the remaining candidate’s pool of votes. This redistribution would continue to happen for Castle, Stein and Johnson, the other candidate’s recieving the lowest percentage of votes. La Fuente, Castle and Stein’s votes would most likely all go to Clinton, giving her 48.69% of votes. It gets a little messy with Johnson because his voters seem to be 50/50 Republican/Democrat second choice. If we split that evenly, Trump gets 50.22% and 49.79% but from the sketchy research I’ve done, it seems that Johnson has pulled more Clinton voters on issues like e-cigs, anti-gun laws and against anti-gay discrimination laws, meaning he is for gay rights. If the Johnson voters put Clinton as number two instead of Trump, Clinton would have 50.88%, enough to surpass the 50.19% threshold.
Any of you who didn’t want Trump to win and voted for Johnson (or any other third-party candidate) fucked up your election, but only because we don’t have an alternative vote system.
States where Trump won with 50.19% or more of the votes in order of electoral votes (high -> low)
States where Clinton won with 50.19% or more of the votes in order of electoral votes (high -> low)
District of Columbia
Trump has 209 electoral votes and Clinton has 186. Where does that leave us? That isn’t 270 or more. I may have done poorly in tenth grade Algebra but I know that 270 is more than either 209 or 186.
Flordia, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Utah, Nevada and New Mexico don’t have a majority for either party. Starting with Florida, we’ll go through them all and see where alternative voting would have likely left the votes. With first past the post, Trump has 274 and Clinton has 219 making Trump the president, even without the states whose votes aren’t final yet.
Florida – 29 votes
From what I can tell, it comes down to Johnson supporters. It could go literally either way for Trump or Hillary but it’s clear that Johnson won’t ever win. Clinton has 48.69% of the votes before Johnson’s are divided and Trump has 49.12%. Dividing evenly really gives Trump Florida but if Clinton got 1.5% or more from Johnson, which is 68.49% of his votes, Clinton would have won Florida.
Pennsylvania – 20 votes
Comes down to Johnson again, but from what I can tell, Johnson voters scew more liberal. Clinton, plus votes from Stein and Castle, gives her 48.82%. Splitting Johnson 50/50 gives Clinton 50.02% and Trump 49.92%. It’s super close but since neither party has clinched a majority, Trumps votes would be dropped out and everyone who wrote Clinton as number two would go to Clinton until she has 50.19%. She has more than 50% of the votes splitting Johnson 50/50.
Virginia – 13 votes
Jill Stein votes alone put Clinton from 49.74% to 50.45%, which means Virginia’s electoral votes go to Clinton. They do also in first past the post, but they could have easily not.
Wisconsin – 10 votes
Before Johnson votes are divided, it’s 48.11% Clinton and 48.27% Trump. The 10 Wisconsin votes could go either way. If a little less than half of Johnson’s supporters would have selected the Democrats as a second choice, Clinton would win Wisconsin, a state that gave Trump 10 more votes.
Colorado – 9 votes
Colorado is 49.48% Clinton and 45.64% Trump and if Johnson really is taking more votes from Clinton, if even less than one-fourth of Johnsons supporters put Clinton down as number two, Clinton would have Colorado. The Johnson votes seem likely that they would be about 60-ish Clinton and 40-ish Trump. Even a 50/50 split would give Colorado to Clinton.
Utah – 6 votes
Trump has 45.48% of the votes and Evan McMullin definitely took a large percent of the conservative voters. Who knows how the second+ distributions would have gone with all those third-party candidates. Let’s just assume that it’s more likely that Trump gets all of Utah’s votes.
Nevada – 6 votes
Clinton actually has 47.89% of the votes, splitting Johnson 50/50 and giving Clinton both Castle’s and Fuente’s votes, she has 50.25% of the votes, giving her Nevada. I wonder if the nearly 30,000 people who dislike all the candidates would have still selected a second choice after their ballot protest of a first choice.
New Mexico – 5 votes
Clinton only needs 0.67% of Johnson’s 9.34% to win New Mexico’s votes.
Who would win under the alternative vote?
So Trump actually has 209 and Clinton 186. Under first past the post, Trump has 276 votes, excluding any votes he would get from Michigan, Arizona, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Alaska, where Clinton has 218. Under the alternative vote, Clinton would have her 186, plus 33 from states she won under first past the post plus 59 in Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, putting her at 278. That’s enough votes to win where more people voted for ‘not Trump’. I’ve heard plenty of people saying Clinton lost because Bernie Sanders wasn’t the Democratic nominee, which is possible, but Clinton would have still won under a more fair voting system where you can rank your candidate selections. Remember a democratic election is held to determine a leader that most accurately represents a majority. This would help to ensure a winner actually has achieved a majority.
I know that writing this doesn’t actually change anything and that most of my readers won’t actually read this because it isn’t Yugioh, but you need to look at the data. The current electoral college is broken and seriously needs something other than first past the post. Alternative vote can’t be rigged any easier than first past the post. If Trump convinced all of Clinton’s supporters to vote for Johnson, that’s not rigging the vote, that’s politics and correct politics so Trump can win first past the post. If Trump convinces Clinton’s supporters to vote for Johnson, their ballot may look like this:
This is also not rigged. Rigging would be Trump somehow actually taking Clinton votes and rewriting them with Trump votes or another third party. The same would be true if Clinton actually changed votes. Convincing someone to vote for you or for someone else and having them write down of their own accord what you want isn’t rigging the election, that’s called politics.
CGP Grey just put this up.
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